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Tag Archives: wind power

India and Japan press ahead – South Korea too

By Dave Elliott

Although renewables are still nowhere near as advanced in India as in China (see my last post), where they are now at over 550 GW including hydro, India had got to 91 GW by the end of 2016, and is expanding fast, with 29 GW of wind capacity in place. It’s the same in Japan, although, with the post-Fukushima nuclear mess still often dominating the news, less is heard about that. But by the end of 2016 it had 72 GW of renewables, including 45 GW of PV solar. And the prospects for growth of renewable capacity are good in both countries. (more…)

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China – even more renewables

By Dave Elliott

China continues to be a global leader in renewables. The nation has more wind power (now at 169 GW) and solar PV (over 100 GW) than any other country and, on 2016 data, a world-beating 554GW of renewables in all, including hydro. There is more to come. The 13th Five Year Plan (2015-2020) proposed targets for energy efficiency, the reduction of carbon intensity and diversification away from fossil fuels, with non-fossil fuels providing 15% of primary energy consumption by 2020, up from 7.4% in 2005.  But China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) is also considering raising the 2020 solar target to 150 GW, which would lead to about 21 GW of annual installation between 2016 and 2020. The Five Year Plan also proposed to increase the installed capacity of wind to 250 GW by 2020.

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UK – not a lost cause

By Dave Elliott

Some see the current UK government’s energy policy as doomed – trapped in a commitment to old technology like nuclear power, leavened only by continued support for offshore wind. For example, the FT ran this analysis: ‘Nobody outside the industry now thinks the future of electricity generation is nuclear fission. The cost of building the plants to comply with safety and antiterrorism standards is rising all the time, fears of a runaway price for oil and gas now look silly, while advances in wind and solar technology are destroying those projections of ever-dearer energy … The UK’s energy market is in an unholy mess, with attention distracted by the vacuous debate about switching electricity suppliers. The real costs lie with the “green initiatives” at the other end of the wires. Scrapping Hinkley Point would not solve all of them, but it would be a start. Perhaps best to wait until after June 8 for another U-turn from Mrs May, though.’  FT 26th May

Well, the June election came and went and that didn’t really resolve much in the energy sector or, arguably, elsewhere. However, while Labour may not have won enough seats to overturn the Conservatives, it did very well, and it is likely to play a significant role in the future, given the hung parliament. What might it do?

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Supergrids revisited – but for desert wind not PV solar

By Dave Elliott

Dr Gregor Czisch is a pioneer for the idea of using long-distance supergrids to allow power from widespread sources to be traded across long distances, for example delivering renewable energy harvested in Africa to the EU. Unlike Desertec’s solar-based supergrid plan, his  supergrid plan, first outlined (in German) in 2001, focused mainly on using wind, which his modelling suggested was the best source. That idea has yet to be taken up and Desertec’s CSP/PV plan is also now defunct, but with solar PV costs now having fallen,  in a recent article Czisch  was asked if he thought it was now an option. However, he insisted that the results of his his original modelling still stood. He had factored in cost reductions for PV and found it wanting. So he still looks to wind, including power imported from North Africa, as a better bet.  (more…)

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The limits of PV solar

By Dave Elliott

Solar PV has been talked up a lot of late. Its costs have certainly fallen and it has expanded to reach around 300GW capacity globally so far. But is it really going to be the dominant renewable as some have suggested? For example, a recent report from the Grantham Institute/Carbon Tracker has PV supplying 29% of world power by 2050 (PDF), with a massive 10,000GW or so in place. Is that realistic?

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Renewables hit by economic success

A Christmas success story – of sorts

By Dave Elliott

Renewables are getting cheaper, with the costs for some falling dramatically. However, as overall energy prices fall, due in part to the success of renewables, it is not just old fossil and nuclear plants that suffer, becoming stranded assets. Older less efficient renewable projects can also face problems, as has happened, it seems, with some older wind turbines. They need replacing with new better designs – reblading and repowering. But, as energy prices continue to fall, upgrades like this may not yield enough extra income to be worthwhile. This will be a continuing issue as renewables expand and get cheaper: the market value of wind and PV power drops with increasing market penetration and success.

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Japan – pressure for more renewables mounts

by Dave Elliott

Japan’s use of both fossil fuels and renewables has increased since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster but, with energy costs being high, improved energy efficiency and massive energy saving drives have pushed national power consumption in 2015 down 12% below the 2010 level. There have been attempts to get approval to restart some the 43 surviving reactors, but so far only 3 have restarted fully – 2 more did, but then closed following court orders. With renewables, including hydro, supplying 14.3% of power in Japan in the year to March 2016, they are producing much more output than nuclear – 139TWh versus 4.3TWh in 2015. Rapid expansion is planned, but even more is being called for.  Meanwhile, the slow and expensive process of cleaning up Fukushima rumbles on, with worries still emerging about leaks and contamination.

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German energy balancing

By Dave Elliott

Germany is in the lead globally with its ambitious renewable energy programme, already supplying over 32% of its electricity and aiming for 80% by 2050.  At present, Germany’s 1.5 million photovoltaic solar installations have a generation capacity of over 40GW, four times the remaining 10.8 GW base-load nuclear fleet that is being decommissioned in stages between the end of 2017 and 2022. PV can be well matched to day-time peak demand in Germany, which is why it has challenged gas peaking plant in this market.  However, due to its low load factor (10-15%, compared to 70-80% or more for nuclear), solar PV generation only delivers around 940 equivalent full-load hours of electricity per year, so in 2015 its high capacity only met around 7.5% of German electricity demand, compared to 14% for nuclear generation. That’s why some think it is not the best option to expand for the future – it’s expensive for relatively low levels of actual output. (more…)

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EU Renewables round up

By Dave Elliott

Renewables are roaring ahead in Europe, with wind at over 140GW and PV surpassing 100GW. There have been some spectacular successes, with renewables briefly supplying 87% of German electricity at one point, and Portugal achieving similarly high contributions-something that’s a regular occurrence in Denmark. But progress may soon be slowed as  economic pressures mount and political reaction sets in with support schemes being withdrawn or constrained. For example, in Germany it’s all change as the government revises the Energiewende energy law with a slow down for wind and solar expansion, via annual capacity caps and reduced support levels. Portugal has also started to phase out its support for renewables, although not quite so aggressively as happened in Spain, or, for that matter, the UK. (more…)

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Labour’s 65% renewables by 2030 plan

By Dave Elliott

Labour’s new Environment and Energy policy aims to get 65% of UK electricity from renewables by 2030 and pioneer a ‘democratic, community-led system of energy supply’. That is well ahead of what might happen under current plans, and includes 47GW of offshore wind, 21GW of onshore wind (up from around 5GW and 10GW at present, respectively) and 25GW of PV solar (up from 12GW now), but is presented as being possible since it would involve new forms of decentralised project development, alongside more conventional ‘top down’ corporate projects, suitably accelerated.

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