By Dave Elliott
With costs falling rapidly, PV solar is moving ahead fast and some see it as likely to become a major renewable source in the future, if not the dominant one. The World Energy Council notes that in its new Symphony global energy scenario, “by 2050, globally, almost as much electricity is produced from solar PV as from coal,” and Shell’s recent “Oceans” scenario saw solar as being the largest single energy source globally by 2060. (more…)
By Dave Elliott
PV solar is doing well in the UK with, on some reckonings, nearly 3 GW installed so far and much more planned, perhaps 10GW by 2020 being likely and possibly even near 20GW. On-land wind is also doing quite well, with 7.3GW in place, and despite planning conflicts and local opposition, a total of 13 GW likely by 2020, based on projects already built, under construction or permitted. Offshore wind is doing well too, with 3.7 GW in place and near 1GW likely to be added this year, including Gwynt y Môr (576MW) and West of Duddon Sands (389MW). All being well, similar amounts are expected in 2015 and 2016, taking the total to maybe 8GW by 2016/17, on the way to 10-11GW by 2020, maybe much more. www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1301372/windpower-data-offshore-installations-2014-16
However that all depends on new projects getting support under the new contract for a difference (CfD) system, and, although five offshore wind projects have got CfDs under the interim ‘early’ round, the government has announced a £205m p.a. cap on future rounds- and that’s to be shared across all the renewables. http://www.gov.uk/government/news/over-200-million-boost-for-renewables
The cash allocation cap is set up under two categories- ‘Pot 1’ with, from 2019, £50m.pa, for well established options, like on-land wind and large PV solar, with costs falling and support needs reducing, and ‘Pot 2’ with £155m p.a, for less established options like off-shore wind, geothermal, AD biomass, wave and tidal stream projects, which still need more support to get prices down- some more than others. Offshore wind is amongst the cheapest of the Pot 2 group, with the CfD strike price set at £155/MWh for 2014-2017, falling to £140 thereafter, and costs seem likely to fall to around £100/MWh after 2020. By contrast, the strike price for wave and tidal stream is set £305/MWh over the whole period up to 2019. So who will get the money? A 100MW tranche has been set aside for wave and tidal stream, so there will be less room (and cash) for the others. Gordon Edge, director of policy at Renewable UK, noted that even if offshore wind got the full £155m pa allocated to ‘Pot 2’ that would fund just one typical 500MW offshore wind farm ‘which is significantly less than we need’. Given for example the recent planning go-ahead for E.ONs 700MW Rampion project off Sussex and the many others in the pipeline, that’s quite an understatement!
It’s even tighter in Pot 1, where there are to be competitive contract auctions. With only £50m available p.a. for hydro, energy from waste, onshore wind, landfill gas, sewage gas and large-scale solar, the Solar Trade Association (STA) complained that, ‘even if all of this went to solar – which it won’t – this is only enough for 1GW of solar in this round, a considerable reduction on the current market’. The STA was particularly incensed by the government’s proposal to exclude large solar power projects (over 5MW) from support under the Renewables Obligation (RO) system from April next year, given that all the other technologies were not excluded, with the RO system still planned to be available up to 2017 for new projects and existing contracts under it running beyond that.
Large solar could seek support under the CfD, but the STA said that solar, with relatively small projects promoted by small business, was not well suited to it, and was ‘being exposed to this new Contracts for Difference system without having the back-up of the old scheme’. The CfD strike price offered was £120/MWh for 2014-16, falling in stages to £100 by 2018, but it would be in competition with on-land wind, with a strike price of £95/MWh falling to £90 by 2019, and with land fill and sewage gas at ever lower strike prices (£55 and 75/MWh respectively). Small PV can continue to get support under the microgen/domestic Feed In Tariff (FiT) and it’s still booming despite a cut in the FiT level, but otherwise, solar growth looks likely to be seriously limited. The STA said the cap could cut large-scale solar installations by about 65% to 80% next year.
What’s behind this? It would perhaps have been reasonable to expect solar to compete within the CfD system if it had the RO in the interim, so why exclude it? Well firstly, with solar farms booming around the UK (several hundred are in place or planned) visual intrusion concerns were rising, and local objections were emerging. And secondly, the rapid expansion was costing too much. DECC’s impact assessment says closing the RO to solar above 5MW from April 2015 will save up to £200m a year, from 2017, from its Levy Control Framework clean energy subsidy budget. That’s the extra it says it might cost if large solar farms were left to expand, perhaps reaching 6.3GW by 2020, under the RO, getting 1.4 ROCs/MWh this year, 1.2 ROCs in 2016. They said this money could be better spent. www.businessgreen.com/bg/analysis/2344769/are-solar-farms-really-too-costly-for-decc-s-budget
Well, we will see. The first full CfD auctions start this October, and then happen annually after that. Will large solar get squeezed out by on-land wind? That’s surely not what the Conservatives want. They have talked of constraining on-land wind, reflecting pressure from their (anti-wind farm) political base in the shires. Well maybe, actually, the £50m pa cap for Pot 1 will do that. Even if on land wind got it all (so killing off large solar), the rate of growth of on-land wind would also be cut: it’s been suggested that it might be halved: http://realfeed-intariffs.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/government-cuts-onshore-wind-deployment.html.
Will offshore wind also get squeezed? That too would be perverse. Although more expensive, it was meant to be one of the main alternatives to on-land wind! Or will the overall cap be raised? It’s set under the Levy Control Framework (LCF) to limit low carbon support (i.e. the RO, FiT and the CfD) and consequent pass through to consumer bills. That has imposed an overall limit for 2014/15 of £3.5bn, rising in stages to £7.6 billion in 2020/21.
There have been calls for a rethink on the LCF cap. Certainly when and if the Hinkley nuclear plant project goes ahead, with its guaranteed £92.5/MWh CfD strike price, the overall cap will have to be raised. As the Daily Telegraph noted: ‘The budget post-2020 is yet to be set but at a minimum will have to expand to accommodate new nuclear plants, the first of which could start generating power – and therefore using up susbidies – from around 2024.’ www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10989789/Offshore-wind-farms-in-doubt-as-subsidy-pot-can-fund-just-one-project.html
The Hinkley project CfD allocation was not subject to a price cap or to the competitive contract auction process that now faces new renewable projects – Edf was the only player and also won a promise of a £10bn loan guarantee. It’s not clear what will happen with regard to next lot of major nuclear projects that the governments want us to support- 16GW initially, maybe more later. If a competitive CfD framework does emerge across the board, we can expect further head to head collisions as rival options seek funding. However with wind and PV solar likely to be cheaper than Hinkley by the time it starts up, any similar new nuclear projects will face stiff competition.
Meanwhile, what should the priorities be? Well, keeping consumer costs down is obviously important, but we are only talking small amounts -the RO has only added around 2% to bills, the FiT 1%, while the competitive CfD is expected to drive prices down, although DECC’s most recent impact assessment carefully noted that its estimates didn’t yet cover nuclear costs. We shall see! But if it was left to the public, the most recent poll indicated that 79% backed renewables (67% liked on land wind, 72% offshore wind, and 82% solar) and only 36% backed nuclear: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/public-attitudes-tracking-survey-wave-10
By Dave Elliott
Renewables are doing well, supplying around 22% of global electricity from around 1,560 GW of generating plant, and 19% of total global primary energy, according to the 2014 edition of REN21s annual renewable review: http://www.ren21.net/gsr
However, although they are still expanding, the rate of growth is slowing. Total global investment in clean energy fell 9% in 2013 to $254bn, following a 9% drop in 2012, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Some of this was due to the reduced costs of PV solar, but in the wake of the global recession and increased market pressures, renewables do seem under some stress. That’s been reflected by (or some might say is the result of) the less than positive policies adopted by some governments. (more…)
By Dave Elliott
This year has seen yet more negativity on wind power, and proposals to cut support for on -land wind, despite this being the cheapest of the major new renewables. While overall public support for the use of wind energy remains high, in practice many new on-land projects are now opposed: two thirds of applications have been turned down in the last year. Much of this has been about visual intrusion, ‘Not In My Back Yard’ concerns relating to treasured views and, more prosaically, possible impacts on house prices. (more…)
By Dave Elliott
UK renewable electricity generation grew by over 56% in the second quarter of 2013, with its share of total electricity generation up to a record 15% from the 10% share in the second quarter of 2012. Projections from the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) for the future suggest continued growth is possible, with in one scenario offshore wind reaching 39 GW by 2030, up from 3.6 GW now, and in another scenario, PV solar reaching 10GW and perhaps even 20 GW by 2020, up from 2.6 GW now. www.gov.uk/government/consultations/transition-from-the-renewables-obligation-to-contracts-for-difference and www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-solar-pv-strategy-part-1-roadmap-to-a-brighter-future (more…)
By Dave Elliott
The interim energy policy outline that emerged in 2012 after the Fukushima nuclear disaster envisaged getting between 25% and 35% of Japans electricity from renewables by 2030, with wind and solar playing major roles. A new fuller plan is expected soon, but in the meantime progress is being made with renewables, with the Japan Renewable Renewable Energy Foundation claiming that ‘Japan will be able to increase the electricity from renewables to at least 20% of its total consumption by FY2020 without putting an undue burden on corporations or on households’. (more…)
by Dave Elliott
The UK government’s announcement of a preliminary deal with EDF and its financial partners on the Hinkley Point C European Pressurised-water Reactor (EPR) project, was met with a mixed response. While some welcomed it as long overdue, with a Telegraph headline saying that it ‘will avoid ‘blight’ of 30,000 wind turbines’, others saw it as a risky diversion from developing truly sustainable green energy options, and even many of those in favour worried about the costs, and the partial reliance on Chinese finance.
by Dave Elliott
In its business leader column on August 25th The Observer, said “If there is a body of opinion that states that wind farms and energy efficiency can fill the looming energy gap, then it is small and deeply unrepresentative”. www.theguardian.com/business/2013/aug/25/anger-fracking-cant-manage-without-gas
Germany is aiming to get at least 80% of its electricity from renewables by 2050, with overall energy demand cut by 50%, so the Observer seems to have it wildly wrong, certainly long term. And in fact, far from being marginal, around 50 countries are already getting more than 60% of their electricity from renewables in the form of hydro, some of them near 100%. http://k.lenz.name/LB/?p=6525. Longer term, dozens of studies claim that renewables could supply 100% of the worlds electricity in many countries by around 2050. http://www.mng.org.uk/gh/scenarios.htm. That is what Denmark and New Zealand are aiming for and many others see renewable as their main future energy option- with China leading the way.
By Dave Elliott
With 175 turbines, the first 630 MW stage of the huge 1GW London array offshore wind farm is now open, taking over from the 500 MW Greater Gabbard project off the East Anglian coast as the largest offshore wind farm so far globally. In parallel, revised plans for the 240 turbine Atlantic array off the Welsh/Devon coasts have been put forward and Galloper have been given permission to construct a 504 MW 150 turbine wind farm off the coast of Suffolk and related infrastructure at Sizewell to connect it to the electricity grid system,while Triton Knoll Offshore Wind Farm Limited has been granted permission to construct a 1200 MW wind farm with 288 turbines off the coast from Lincolnshire and Norfolk.
By Dave Elliott
In the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March last year, Japan has been trying to develop an alternative approach to energy supply and use, based on energy efficiency and a major commitment to renewables, including a new quite generous Feed-In Tariff for PV solar, a 1GW off shore wind programme and more support for other marine renewables- offshore projects obviously make sense in a country where land is at a premium. I outlined some of the offshore wind projects in an earlier Blog- they included floating wind turbines off the coast from Fukushima: http://environmentalresearchweb.org/blog/2012/07/greening-japans-energy.html.
In addition the government has decided to allow geothermal energy projects in newly opened areas of national parks. It is claimed that this could result in the development of up to 2 GW of capacity by the 2020s. As a very symbolic start, a 500 kilowatt geothermal plant is to be installed at the Tsuchiyu Onsen hot spring in Fukushima City. Some new biomass projects have also been started, including algae production for biofuels.