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Tag Archives: 2050 scenarios

India and Japan press ahead – South Korea too

By Dave Elliott

Although renewables are still nowhere near as advanced in India as in China (see my last post), where they are now at over 550 GW including hydro, India had got to 91 GW by the end of 2016, and is expanding fast, with 29 GW of wind capacity in place. It’s the same in Japan, although, with the post-Fukushima nuclear mess still often dominating the news, less is heard about that. But by the end of 2016 it had 72 GW of renewables, including 45 GW of PV solar. And the prospects for growth of renewable capacity are good in both countries. (more…)

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Scotland shows the way forward

By Dave Elliott

Scotland is now generating the equivalent of around 60% of its annual electricity needs from renewables, mostly wind, and is aiming for 100%, with new nuclear blocked unilaterally. So it is a little surprising that there have not been more studies of this unique initiative. That’s soon to change with a new book, ‘A critical review of Scottish Energy Policy’ by a group of Scottish academics edited by Geoff Wood and Keith Baker, to be published by Palgrave next month. It focuses on renewables and low carbon options and related policy, planning, legislation and regulation issues.

It is a very timely publication, given that, after Brexit, Scotland may vote to go fully independent. It is already quite independent, with its own devolved government and a clearly different and very progressive energy policy. What’s not to like? Well not everything is ideal, as this new book explains. But the overwhelming message is that, despite the endless debate about whether renewables can work large-scale, here’s a country actually doing it.

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Balancing renewables in Denmark

By Dave Elliott

Denmark has been at the forefront of the renewable energy revolution and although it has seen some political retrenchment recently, it is still pressing ahead with the next phase,  which includes the need for more grid balancing. It’s mainly a problem of over-supply. Wind and other renewables now supply over 43% of annual power, and that at times means there is too much electricity available. How is that dealt with? (more…)

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The limits of PV solar

By Dave Elliott

Solar PV has been talked up a lot of late. Its costs have certainly fallen and it has expanded to reach around 300GW capacity globally so far. But is it really going to be the dominant renewable as some have suggested? For example, a recent report from the Grantham Institute/Carbon Tracker has PV supplying 29% of world power by 2050 (PDF), with a massive 10,000GW or so in place. Is that realistic?

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100% Renewables? Mostly nonsense!

by Dave Elliott

So says a new study by a group of mostly pro-nuclear academics, who look critically at some of the many ‘100% renewables’ global or regional energy scenarios that have emerged in recent years. 24 were deemed to have forecast regional, national or global energy requirements in sufficient detail to be considered potentially credible but, on inspection, none were considered to have provided convincing evidence that basic feasibility criteria, in relation to energy supply reliability, grids and balancing, could be met. (more…)

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Renewables – now 70% by 2050 is the low estimate!

by Dave Elliott

In a joint report, the International Energy Agency and the International Renewable Agency present their views on how to comply with the Paris COP 21 Climate protection aims. The pathways that they describe both have renewables expanding rapidly, but differ in pace and level. As might be expected, IRENA sees renewables as being able to deliver significantly more power by 2050 than the IEA – 82% of global electricity by 2050, compared to the IEA’s estimate of ‘near 70%’. However, it is striking that, whereas previously, renewables had often been seen as perhaps able to deliver 50% by 2050, we have now moved on to debating whether 70% is too low. With costs falling, the supposed limits are being pushed back continually… (more…)

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The last word on the cost of balancing renewables

By Dave Elliott

The UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) has produced an update to its 2006 report that had looked at the costs and impacts of using ‘intermittent’ electricity from renewables such as wind and solar. The 2006 study had only examined impacts with up to a 20% input, but the UKERC researchers now say that, even at the higher levels we are now expecting, it was still the case that the costs of balancing renewables could be low. However, they warned that, unless ‘urgent’ action was taken by the government to boost grid flexibility, the costs of adding renewables in future will be ‘much higher than they need to be’.

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Nuclear or renewables – two new scenarios

By Dave Elliott

Guest posts by Energy Matters’ commentators Alex Terrell and Andy Dawson present two rival UK scenarios for 2050 with, respectively, high nuclear and high renewables. It’s an interesting exercise. They looked at DECC’s 2050 Pathways models, but say ‘it’s far from clear if the underlying models take adequate account of variations in demand’. So they developed their own demand projections.

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Set the controls for the heart of the Sun

By Dave Elliott

A report from Carbon Tracker and the Grantham Institute says that by 2050 solar PV could supply 29% of all global electricity. Its 2050 scenario still has a lot of nuclear in it, supplying about the same as PV, but not much wind (about 7%). That’s a bit odd, especially since the report indicates that onshore wind is currently cheaper in capital cost terms than either nuclear or PV. That stays true up to 2050 on its baseline scenario. But in its lower cost prediction, it sees PV undercutting all by 2050 – falling to M$390-643/GW, about a tenth of its rather low estimate for the current (and future) cost of nuclear (M$3706-4200/GW) and also much cheaper than the baseline capital costs for onshore wind (M$1640/GW) and offshore wind (M$2970/GW) by 2050. That does ignore the likelihood that wind costs may fall faster too and, given the low capacity factor for PV, in order to get to 29% of total output, they say 65% of global generation capacity would have to be PV by 2050 – around 10TW!

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Beyond technology: the demand side of climate change solutions

by Felix Creutzig

Can we rely on renewable energies and electric cars to win the climate race? Surely, such technologies will make great contributions, and, in fact, are absolutely necessary to achieve ambitious climate goals, such as the 2C target. Yet, they might not be sufficient.

In a comprehensive review, published in Annual Review of Environment and Resources, we investigate the role of the demand side to climate change mitigation. The review finds substantiative opportunities in particular in the food sector, and in cities. At least 20% counterfactual reductions in emissions can be achieved by reducing meat consumption, by modal shift and compacter urban form in urban transport, and in the building sector by behavioral change. The overall range is broad and uncertain, and higher contributions of the demand side are feasible.

Demand-side solutions fall into two (overlapping) classes: infrastructures and behavioural change. Infrastructures essentially form endogenous preferences and set the cost structures for consumption choices (think about the convenience of public transport or car driving in Manhattan and Houston). Behavioural change involves opportunities to change entrenched habits, partially also by modifying ‘soft’ infrastructures, e.g. by nudging.

pp410173.f4

The review also identifies key hurdles to perform assessment of demand-side solutions. Key among them is that conventional cost-benefit analysis is hard to carry out when preferences are not exogenously given. Then costs and benefits not only depend on given environmental outcomes of a specific intervention, but also on how preferences changed by the intervention. A comprehensive model of human behaviour is required (see figure above).

The demand side received only scarce attention in recent assessment reports and the reasons are not necessarily obvious. The technical difficulties certainly discourage quantitative assessments. Yet, given its likely importance, more studies should systematically tackle this challenge, notably learning from the experience in urban studies.

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