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Tag Archives: 2050 scenarios

Jacobson’s new 100% renewables model aims to rebut critics

By Dave Elliott

Prof. Mark Jacobson and his team at Stanford University got some flack for their 100% global renewable energy study last year. It said 139 countries around the world could obtain 100% of their energy from wind, water and solar (WWS) sources by 2050. It had been based on their 2015 study that examined the ability of 48 US states to meet all their energy needs stably from these renewables. Some said their approach was flawed, and, for example, relied too heavily on energy storage solutions and on adding turbines to existing hydroelectric dams to get extra power: see www.pnas.org/content/114/26/6722

In response, Jacobson and colleagues at Stanford, the University of California at Berkeley and Aalborg University in Denmark have now produced a new study, focusing on 20 global regions encompassing the 139 countries, with supply and demand matching modelled for a range of storage/backup options over the period 2050-54. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148118301526

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100% of all energy from renewables?

By Dave Elliott

The energy scenario now offered by BEIS implies that renewables might be supplying around 50% of UK electricity by 2035, with 45GW expected to be in place by then, mostly wind and solar PV. There are more ambitious scenarios, like the one produced for the UK/Ireland by Finland’s LUT and the German Energy Watch Group as a subset of their global 100% renewables scenario. That has renewables supplying all the electricity used in the UK/Ireland by around 2040:  That may be ambitious, but near 100% by 2050 certainly now seem credible for electricity, given the political will. Scotland is already at over 60%. But what about heat and transport? (more…)

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100% renewables – a fantasy?

By Dave Elliott

‘Electricity comprises just one fifth of annual energy demand in the UK, so creating a 100% renewable energy economy would be an order of magnitude more difficult than the already challenging task of powering our existing electricity grid with 100% renewable sources’. So says a report from the Policy Exchange, putting the case for Small Modular Reactors. It’s a familiar line – 100% for power will be very tough, 100% for all energy impossible.

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Green energy levy freeze

By Dave Elliott

The UK’s Autumn Budget may have backed Electric Vehicles, but it wasn’t too helpful in terms of providing extra support for the green electricity they ought to use, if we want carbon emissions to be reduced. Tucked away in the Budget details was a plan for replacing the Levy Control Framework, which caps spending on green energy projects, with a new ‘Control of Carbon Levies’ system.  It will cover the Renewables Obligation (RO), Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs) and the Contracts for Difference (CfD) systems as before, but the bad news is that, to keep future costs down, on the basis of current forecasts, there will be no new low carbon electricity levies until 2025’.

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Renewable innovation – and jobs

By Dave Elliott

IRENA, the International Renewable Energy Agency, has looked at innovation options and potentials in the sustainable energy sector, in terms of what needs to be done to reduce global carbon emissions. It says that ‘energy efficiency and renewable energy have the potential to achieve 90% of the emissions reductions needed by 2050, with renewables accounting for two-thirds of primary energy supply in 2050’. At that point, wind and solar heat will lead at 15% each. However, in most cases, while some technical R&D may still be needed, innovations in business models, market designs, enabling infrastructure and systems operation, are equally crucial to achieve the energy transformation’. (more…)

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India and Japan press ahead – South Korea too

By Dave Elliott

Although renewables are still nowhere near as advanced in India as in China (see my last post), where they are now at over 550 GW including hydro, India had got to 91 GW by the end of 2016, and is expanding fast, with 29 GW of wind capacity in place. It’s the same in Japan, although, with the post-Fukushima nuclear mess still often dominating the news, less is heard about that. But by the end of 2016 it had 72 GW of renewables, including 45 GW of PV solar. And the prospects for growth of renewable capacity are good in both countries. (more…)

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Scotland shows the way forward

By Dave Elliott

Scotland is now generating the equivalent of around 60% of its annual electricity needs from renewables, mostly wind, and is aiming for 100%, with new nuclear blocked unilaterally. So it is a little surprising that there have not been more studies of this unique initiative. That’s soon to change with a new book, ‘A critical review of Scottish Energy Policy’ by a group of Scottish academics edited by Geoff Wood and Keith Baker, to be published by Palgrave next month. It focuses on renewables and low carbon options and related policy, planning, legislation and regulation issues.

It is a very timely publication, given that, after Brexit, Scotland may vote to go fully independent. It is already quite independent, with its own devolved government and a clearly different and very progressive energy policy. What’s not to like? Well not everything is ideal, as this new book explains. But the overwhelming message is that, despite the endless debate about whether renewables can work large-scale, here’s a country actually doing it.

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Balancing renewables in Denmark

By Dave Elliott

Denmark has been at the forefront of the renewable energy revolution and although it has seen some political retrenchment recently, it is still pressing ahead with the next phase,  which includes the need for more grid balancing. It’s mainly a problem of over-supply. Wind and other renewables now supply over 43% of annual power, and that at times means there is too much electricity available. How is that dealt with? (more…)

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The limits of PV solar

By Dave Elliott

Solar PV has been talked up a lot of late. Its costs have certainly fallen and it has expanded to reach around 300GW capacity globally so far. But is it really going to be the dominant renewable as some have suggested? For example, a recent report from the Grantham Institute/Carbon Tracker has PV supplying 29% of world power by 2050 (PDF), with a massive 10,000GW or so in place. Is that realistic?

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100% Renewables? Mostly nonsense!

by Dave Elliott

So says a new study by a group of mostly pro-nuclear academics, who look critically at some of the many ‘100% renewables’ global or regional energy scenarios that have emerged in recent years. 24 were deemed to have forecast regional, national or global energy requirements in sufficient detail to be considered potentially credible but, on inspection, none were considered to have provided convincing evidence that basic feasibility criteria, in relation to energy supply reliability, grids and balancing, could be met. (more…)

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