Posts by: Dave Elliott

China accelerates renewables

By Dave Elliott

The Chinese National Renewable Energy Centre (CNREC) says China could get 85% of its electricity and 60% of all its primary energy from renewables by 2050, with wind and solar PV both exceeding 2TW of installed capacity by 2040: www.climatechangenews.com/2015/04/22/chinas-electricity-could-go-85-renewable-by-2050-study/

It certainly seems to be trying to head that way. Under its new 5 year plan it aims to more than double its wind energy capacity (to 250GW), and nearly treble its solar capacity (to 160GW), accelerating well ahead of the EU: www.e3g.org/library/china-accelerates-while-europe-deliberates-on-the-clean-energy-transition    

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Balancing green power

By Dave Elliott

If the use of renewables is to expand further, ways have to be found of compensating for their variability. Fortunately there are many, as I have outlined in a new book ‘Balancing green power’, produced for the Institute of Physics. It sets out to show how, taken together, they can help balance grid systems as increasing amounts of renewable capacity is added, helping to avoid wasteful curtailment of excess output and minimising the cost of grid balancing. The options include flexible generation plants, energy storage systems, smart grid demand management and supergrid imports and exports.

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Renewable Integration – a view from Germany

By Dave Elliott

High shares of wind and solar power transform the entire power system and can lead to additional system integration and back-up costs aside from building the power plants themselves. A new background paper from Agora Energiewende examines these dynamics and concludes that, not only are the direct integration/balancing costs low, but so are the controversial indirect costs associated with the variable utilization, in balancing mode, of conventional plant – as long as the power system becomes considerably more flexible.

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After Hinkley

By Dave Elliott

Battles continue over the economic viability of the proposed £18bn Hinkley nuclear project, with EDF still saying it can go ahead, despite the resignation of two key senior executives, opposition from the French trade unions and even doubts now emerging from the French Government. Energy minister Ségolène Royal said: ‘This project must offer further proof that it is well-founded and offer a guarantee that the investment in this project will not dry up investments that must be made in renewable energies.’  It is interesting then that EDF’s recent R&D Paper ‘Technical and Economic Analysis of the European Electricity System with 60% RES’, by Alain Burtin and Vera Silva, looks at an EU future dominated by renewables, with nuclear only playing a moderate role, 90GW total.

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ETI on energy saving in buildings

By Dave Elliott

The UK Energy Technologies Institute’s report by Jeff Douglas on Decarbonising Heat for UK Homes notes that ~20% of CO2 emissions are from domestic heating, but says insulation/upgrades won’t cut that enough: ‘the scope for cost effectively reducing the energy demand of existing buildings to the great extent required to meet emissions targets is limited as comprehensive insulation and improvement measures are expensive and intrusive. A several hundred billion pound investment in demand reduction for the entire building stock might deliver less than half of the emissions abatement needed. The most cost effective solutions therefore involve the decarbonisation of the energy supply combined with efficiency improvements that are selectively rather than universally applied, as part of a composite package’.

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The RHI to be ‘reformed and refocused’

By Dave Elliott

The UK’s Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) was introduced to support households, businesses, public bodies and charities in moving from conventional forms of heating to renewable, low carbon sources of heat. It has escaped cuts so far, indeed it is set to expand, but the government wants to restructure it to keep energy costs down for consumers and get better value for money. It expects spending on the RHI to rise from £430m in 2015/16 to £1.15bn in 2020/21, but says it wants to promote wider access and make project more affordable, ‘by firmly controlling costs’.

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UK Energy and the EU: integration or isolation

By Dave Elliott

The UK may be island based but, as renewables expand, it will need more grid links to the continent for balancing and trade. It may have a net surplus and so could do very well selling it over supergrid interconnector links to EU countries less well endowed with renewables. The UK’s National Infrastructure Commission (NIC), which seems to be taking a leading role in energy system planning, said in its recent report ‘Smart Power’, that interconnection, along with storage and demand flexibility ‘could save consumers up to £8 billion a year by 2030, help the UK meet its 2050 carbon targets, and secure the UK’s energy supply for generations’.         

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Energy system integration costs cut

By Dave Elliott

Imperial College London and the NERA consultancy have produced studies of energy system integration costs and grid balancing options for the government’s advisory Committee on Climate Change. They focus on flexible generation and backup systems and conclude that ‘flexibility can significantly reduce the integration cost of intermittent renewables, to the point where their whole-system cost makes them a more attractive expansion option than CCS and/or nuclear’.

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Why get rid of gas heating?

By Dave Elliott

The current decarbonisation plan in the UK is to replace the use of fossil gas for domestic heating by the use of electricity. That may have been slowed by the abolition of the Zero Carbon Homes policy for new build, with its 2016 deadline, but there is still a strong push in that direction, with a ‘Near Zero Energy in Buildings’ concept and specific programmes for roll-out of technologies like electric heat pumps, apparently one of the government’s favoured heat supply options, along of course with insulation and improved building design to reduce demand. The latter makes sense, the former, well that is debatable.

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UK Renewable Investment – the right priorities?

by Dave Elliott

The share of renewables in UK electricity supply reached a high of 23.5% in the third quarter of 2015 (Q3), up 5.9% from 2014 Q3, and it seems likely to continue to grow as more projects come on line. However there are some problems. UK investment in renewables reached around £14bn in 2015, but has focused increasingly on the more costly offshore wind option: £8bn was invested in it in 2015. With the government block on support for cheaper on-shore wind and its slowdown of PV solar support, that arguably imbalanced pattern will get worse. It means less capacity per £ invested. Bloomberg forecast that over the next 5 years the UK will in effect lose at least 1 GW of renewable capacity. As offshore wind moves down its cost-reduction curve, the situation may improve, if then the money saved can be spent on other projects, but Bloomberg says ‘without some form of change in policy support, we could see investment drop off a cliff after 2019′. www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/britains-renewable-energy-industry-is-about-to-fall-off-a-cliff-says-new-research-a6818186.html  (more…)

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